数据点评|财政支出趋弱，关注加码可能（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure continues to slow down, and the fiscal "toolbox" may have various means to counteract downward pressure [1][2][54] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [8][54] - The broad fiscal revenue showed a decline, with a completion rate of 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%, and the broad fiscal expenditure completion rate was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8% [1][9][54] - As of the end of August, the net financing of national bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%, which is nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024 [14][55] Government Debt and Support - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing is nearing its end, which may lead to a difficulty in maintaining high growth rates in broad fiscal expenditure [2][18][55] - The issuance of special bonds supporting various sectors has been largely completed, indicating that government debt funds' support for broad fiscal expenditure is close to its conclusion [14][55] Economic Impact - The decline in government fund income has dragged down the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue, with government fund income down 5.7% year-on-year in August 2025 [2][28][56] - The slowdown in retail growth and investment in equipment procurement since June, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a "window period" for national subsidies, may put further pressure on economic growth [2][18][56] Fiscal Policy Tools - To counter economic downward pressure, the fiscal "toolbox" may include two types of policies: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [2][23][55] - The experience shows that fiscal measures can be flexible and quick to implement, especially through policy banks acting in a quasi-fiscal capacity [2][23][55] Fund Income and Expenditure Trends - The government fund expenditure has significantly declined, contributing to the slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth, with a year-on-year increase of only 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July [3][40][56] - The land transfer income continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 26% in August, which further impacts government fund income [28][49][56]