华友钴业，起飞了

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has surged over 60% this year, with cobalt metal industry leaders also performing exceptionally well, particularly Huayou Cobalt, which has seen an increase of nearly 80% [2][5]. Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, founded in 2002 and headquartered in Zhejiang, initially focused on cobalt and copper mining, later expanding into lithium battery materials and significant investments in nickel resources in Indonesia and lithium resources in Africa [5]. - As of 2024, Huayou Cobalt's revenue sources include cobalt (6%), copper (9%), nickel (35%), lithium (5%), ternary precursors (11%), and ternary cathode materials (14%), with nickel contributing the highest gross margin at 52% [5]. - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 21.2 billion to 60.9 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30%, and net profit increasing from 1.165 billion to 4.155 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 37.4% [5]. Recent Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% [8]. - Nickel product revenue reached 12.84 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 138%, driven by the ramp-up of projects in Indonesia [8]. - Despite a decline in cobalt, copper, and lithium revenues, the company's net profit margin reached a three-year high of 9.33%, attributed to effective cost control measures [8]. Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices have shown significant cyclical fluctuations, with recent supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leading to a potential price surge, with domestic cobalt prices rising from 166,000 yuan/ton in February to 270,000 yuan/ton by September [12][14][15]. - The DRC's export ban on cobalt has reduced global supply by approximately 200,000 tons, which is 40% of annual demand, creating a favorable environment for Huayou Cobalt and other companies in the cobalt supply chain [15][17]. - Nickel production in Indonesia has rapidly expanded, with production expected to reach 16 million tons by 2024, but current oversupply conditions have led to declining nickel prices [18][19]. Future Outlook - The demand for nickel is anticipated to experience explosive growth starting in 2027, driven by the adoption of solid-state batteries, which could significantly benefit Huayou Cobalt, given its substantial investments in nickel resources [20][21]. - The A-share market is expected to shift from technology to cyclical and consumer sectors, which may support Huayou Cobalt's valuation recovery [23].