国泰海通｜有色：降息开启定底线，商品属性添弹性

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which is favorable for market sentiment and may lead to a short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2] Economic Analysis - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is expected to enhance liquidity in the market, while domestic policy space is also widening, creating a favorable environment for industrial metals [1][2] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows improvement, with retail sales exceeding expectations and a decline in initial jobless claims, reducing fears of a recession [2] Precious Metals - The gold price may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking by some investors and an increase in market risk appetite, despite the long-term potential for gold driven by ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status [2] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are strengthening, with increased processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season, alongside rising pre-holiday inventory demands [1][2] - The recent rate cut and anticipated further cuts are expected to support industrial metal prices, while supply-side disruptions are likely to enhance the supply-demand balance [2]