Workflow
【广发宏观吴棋滢】地方财政“清欠”进度如何?
郭磊宏观茶座·2025-09-21 08:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "6+4" local government debt resolution plan for 2024, which primarily targets the 14.3 trillion yuan of hidden debts recognized by the central government, emphasizing the need to address overdue payments to enterprises for cash flow recovery [1][9][10]. Summary by Sections Government Debt Classification - Government debt is classified into explicit debt (82.1 trillion yuan), recognized hidden debt (10.5 trillion yuan, reduced by 3.8 trillion yuan from 2023), government payment responsibilities, and debts of state-owned enterprises [2][11][12]. Incremental Policies for Debt Clearance - Key policies include allocating special bond quotas to clear enterprise overdue payments and allowing local bonds to support government-related costs in existing PPP projects [3][13][19]. Special Bonds for Overdue Payments - In 2024, 4.4 trillion yuan of new special bonds will be allocated to repay overdue payments, with an estimated 400 billion yuan specifically for this purpose. The average proportion of special bonds for clearing debts in seven provinces is 23%, with a national estimate of around 10% [3][14][15]. Changes in Special Bond Issuance - By now, provinces have issued approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt clearance, exceeding initial plans by 400 billion yuan. There is a notable shift in issuance among provinces, with significant increases in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][15][17]. Distinction of Current Special Bonds - The current special bonds for enterprise overdue payments are distinct from previous allocations, focusing solely on overdue payments rather than mixing with other project costs [4][17][18]. Support for PPP Projects - Local bonds are now permitted to support government costs in existing PPP projects, which is crucial given the total government expenditure responsibility for PPP projects is projected to reach 14.34 trillion yuan by 2026 [5][19][20]. Land Purchase Bonds - Special bonds are also allowed for repurchasing idle land, with 3.131 billion yuan issued for this purpose, which helps alleviate local debt pressure [6][22][23]. Impact on Enterprises - Previous debt clearance policies have benefited infrastructure-related enterprises, but the transmission efficiency remains slow. The pressure on accounts receivable in small and micro enterprises continues to be the highest among industries [7][25][26]. Future Policy Directions - The article suggests that future policies will likely continue to focus on improving cash flow for enterprises and addressing overdue payments, with potential expansions in the scale of special bonds for these purposes [8][31][32].