半导体行业观察·2025-09-20 01:55Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and issues within the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of the current artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of 2000 [3][4]. Group 1: AI Bubble Concerns - The AI bubble is compared to the internet bubble, with concerns that excessive spending and unclear returns on investment are beginning to show cracks [3][4]. - Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, warns that many will incur significant losses as the AI market may not sustain its current growth [3][4]. - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman and Chairman Brett Taylor echo these sentiments, indicating that while AI will create economic value, the current environment is fraught with risks [4][5]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Projections - Predictions indicate a growth rate of 16% this year, driven by a 21% increase in the logic market, which is influenced by AI chip demand [4][5]. - Despite the AI bubble, a projected growth rate of 12% for 2026 is anticipated, with a minimum forecast of 6% due to various uncertainties [4][5]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Impact - The article highlights significant investments in AI data centers, including a $200 billion investment in Norway and a £30 billion plan in the UK [5][7]. - ASML's investment of $1.3 billion in Mistral AI is noted as a sign of the bubble, as it represents a strategic partnership rather than a traditional supplier relationship [10][11]. - The semiconductor market is facing pressures from declining GPU and AI chip sales, which could lead to capacity releases and impact companies like TSMC [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming crisis is expected to affect semiconductor technology development, with new players like Intel and Rapidus entering the 2nm process node market [13]. - The article suggests that the semiconductor market has not yet recovered from excess inventory and long-term agreements, complicating recovery efforts [13].