【宏观】对非美出口韧性还会持续吗？——《见微知著》第二十七篇（赵格格/周可）

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, China's exports have maintained a strong growth rate despite increasing global trade uncertainties, primarily driven by high growth in non-US exports offsetting declines in exports to the US [4][5]. Group 1: Export Performance - From January to August 2025, China's exports remained robust, with ASEAN, Africa, and the EU being the main contributors, while the US was a significant drag [5]. - China's export products are increasingly concentrated in high-end manufacturing, with labor-intensive industries shifting from product exports to capacity relocation [5]. Group 2: Drivers of Non-US Export Growth - Transshipment trade is not the main reason for high export growth; since May 2024, China's exports to non-US regions have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate due to a combination of high global manufacturing activity and low year-on-year base [6]. - For the EU, the main driver of high export growth is the recovery in consumer spending, influenced by multiple interest rate cuts since June 2024, which positively impacted both corporate investment and consumer spending [6]. - In the ASEAN region, capacity relocation has driven growth in intermediate goods exports, particularly in consumer electronics, with significant contributions from electronic components [6]. - In Africa, comprehensive deepening of mineral industry cooperation and consumer demand has led to a 46.5% year-on-year increase in exports through foreign contracting projects, with high growth in machinery and consumer goods exports [7]. Group 3: Future Export Logic - Looking ahead, two main factors are expected to drive exports: competitive product advantages that can enhance China's import share in non-US regions, and a significant increase in global capital expenditure driven by various factors including developed countries' industrial policies and the recovery of global manufacturing PMI [8].