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大摩:人形机器人的全球竞争格局,中国领跑商业化、特斯拉Optimus V3最受关注、韩国正在追赶中美
美股IPO·2025-09-21 12:52

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical turning point, with a projected global market size of $5 trillion by 2050 [4] - China leads in commercial orders, with a cumulative order value of 975 million RMB (approximately $140 million) [2][3] - Tesla's Optimus V3 is gaining global attention due to its groundbreaking technology [8] - The South Korean government has announced a high-tech industry fund of 150 trillion KRW (approximately $108 billion) to catch up with the US and China [11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoid robots will be in use, increasing to 1.02 billion by 2050, with annual revenue nearing $5 trillion, which is about twice the total revenue of the top 20 global automotive manufacturers in 2024 [2] - The Morgan Stanley Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen by 24.7% since its establishment on February 6, 2025, while the Chinese humanoid robot value chain has surged by 92.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the MSCI China Index's 37.6% increase [2][7] Group 2: China's Commercialization Efforts - The humanoid robot industry in China is rapidly transitioning from technology development to commercial application, with major integrators reporting total orders nearing 1 billion RMB [3] - The largest single order was from Zhifang Robot, which secured a 500 million RMB order for deploying 1,000 humanoid robots at the HKC semiconductor display production base over the next three years [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Tesla's Optimus V3 features revolutionary advancements in hand design, achieving human-level dexterity, and significant improvements in AI processing power, with the new AI5 inference chip being 40 times more powerful than its predecessor [9] - The production timeline for V3 has been updated, with plans to produce "hundreds" of units by the end of 2025, and mass production expected to start in 2026, aiming for an annual capacity of 1 million units at a production cost of $20,000 to $25,000 per unit [9] Group 4: South Korea's Strategic Investments - The South Korean government and enterprises are actively investing in the humanoid robot sector, with a focus on AI and robotics, to establish a competitive position against the US and China [11] - Companies like Hyundai and Samsung are developing humanoid robot capabilities, with Hyundai planning to establish a robot factory in the US with an annual capacity of 30,000 units [11] - The MSCI Korea Humanoid Robot 100 Index has increased by 29.1% since its inception, reflecting optimistic market expectations for South Korea's development in emerging technologies [12]