【石油化工】美联储降息周期重启，IEA上调原油需求预期——行业周报第421期（250915—0921）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year after a total reduction of 125 basis points since last September [4] - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.6%, up from 1.4%, and for 2026 to 1.8%, up from 1.6%, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook that could support a rebound in oil demand [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day for October, as part of a cautious optimism regarding market conditions, with plans to gradually restore an additional 1.65 million barrels per day [5] - As of August 2025, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 1.75 million barrels per day, with the IEA projecting a growth of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day from OPEC+ in 2025 [5] Group 3 - The IEA has slightly raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day, citing resilience in emerging market oil consumption [6] - On the supply side, the IEA has increased its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ contributing 1.3 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day [6] - Geopolitical factors, including sanctions and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, are impacting the oil market, alongside OPEC+ production increases and rising global oil inventories [6]