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热点思考 | 降息重启,美债利率怎么走?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-09-21 16:04

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic logic behind different interest rate patterns is influenced by the nature of the economic landing, affecting the slope and space of U.S. Treasury yields [2][27] - In preventive rate cuts, the decline in Treasury yields is smaller and rebounds sooner, while in recessionary cuts, the recovery in yields occurs later [2][28] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield is often associated with the pace of rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][28] Group 3 - Despite the restart of rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to rising long-term nominal neutral rates in the range of 3-3.5% [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but economic forecasts suggest the Fed may only cut rates once if inflation remains above target [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with significant upward pressure from debt supply expansion and policy uncertainty [3][56]