光大证券研究·2025-09-21 23:04Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, anticipating an upward trend due to various macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - Following a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the US in September, the dollar index experienced a short-term rebound, leading to a temporary decline in copper prices. However, the interest rate cut cycle is not over, suggesting a potential further weakening of the dollar index [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory adjustments caused by US copper tariffs are nearing completion, with expectations that the accumulation of inventories on LME and COMEX will gradually end. The supply of copper from mines and scrap remains tight, with a slight decrease in electrolytic copper production in August. Demand for electricity and air conditioning is expected to rebound in Q4, supporting higher copper prices [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 3.2%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 3.2%. As of September 19, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 725,000 tons, up 4.6% from the previous week. Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 557,000 tons, up 2.6% [5]. Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 193 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In May 2025, China's refined copper production was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting and Processing - In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 15.6% year-on-year. The TC spot price as of September 19 was -40.64 USD/ton, reflecting a 0.8 USD/ton increase from the previous week, remaining at historically low levels [7]. Demand Trends - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points week-on-week, while the production of household air conditioners in August exceeded expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [8][9].