半导体行业观察·2025-09-22 01:02Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing intense competition in AI applications, with predictions that TSMC's major customer rankings will change by 2026, while Apple remains the largest customer with significant revenue contributions [2][4]. Group 1: Customer Rankings and Revenue Contributions - In 2025, TSMC's top customers are expected to be Apple (25-27%), Nvidia (11%), MediaTek (9%), Qualcomm (8%), AMD (7%), Broadcom (7%), and Intel (6%). By 2026, the rankings will shift, with Apple (22-25%), Broadcom (11-15%), Nvidia (11%), MediaTek (9-10%), Qualcomm (8%), AMD (7%), and Intel (7%) [3][4]. - Apple is projected to contribute TSMC's highest revenue in 2024, estimated at NT$624.3 billion, marking a 14.2% year-on-year increase and accounting for 22% of total revenue [7][8]. - Broadcom is anticipated to rise rapidly, potentially becoming one of TSMC's top three customers by 2026, driven by partnerships with AI companies like OpenAI [4][5]. Group 2: Apple's Strategic Moves - Apple has reportedly secured over half of TSMC's 2nm production capacity for 2026, allowing it to leverage advanced manufacturing processes ahead of competitors [6][7]. - TSMC's 2nm production is set to begin in the second half of 2025, with Apple being the primary customer for the initial capacity [8]. - Apple's strategy of early reservations for advanced process technology is expected to provide a competitive edge, enhancing product performance and customer benefits [8]. Group 3: TSMC's Expansion and Production Capacity - TSMC is expanding its production capabilities in the U.S., with strong demand for advanced processes, including the A16 level, from American clients [10]. - The company plans to invest a total of $165 billion in new facilities, including six new wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities [11]. - By 2028, TSMC's overseas production capacity is projected to account for 20% of total capacity, with a focus on meeting the strong demand from U.S. clients [10].