HBM的另一场内战

Group 1 - HBM chips have become the standard for AI computing, with their core advantage stemming from the vertical stacking structure of DRAM chips [2] - The main chip stacking technology currently is Thermal Compression Bonding (TCB), which faces limitations as the number of stacked layers exceeds 16, affecting yield and signal integrity [2][4] - Hybrid bonding technology emerges as a revolutionary solution, allowing for direct copper-to-copper bonding between DRAM chips, enhancing interconnect density without the limitations of bumps [2][4] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is shifting towards small chips and 3D integrated chip (3DIC) technology due to the slowdown of Moore's Law, making packaging a key factor in driving AI chip performance [4][6] - According to Yole Group, the evolution of chip bonding technology is moving towards hybrid bonding as the ultimate goal, with a projected market growth for hybrid bonding equipment to reach $397 million by 2030 [6][9] Group 3 - Hybrid bonding technology offers significant advantages over TCB, including a 15x increase in interconnect density, 11.9x speed improvement, and over 100x energy efficiency performance [9][10] - Despite the higher infrastructure costs, the cost per interconnect is reduced by 10 times with hybrid bonding, and it can lower the HBM stack temperature by 20% [9][10] Group 4 - Currently, no company has successfully achieved mass production of hybrid bonding equipment due to challenges such as existing TCB machines being sufficient, high precision requirements, and the high cost of hybrid bonding machines [12][21] - Predictions indicate that by 2030, the cumulative installation of hybrid bonding equipment will range from 960 to 2000 units, reflecting a 7% increase from previous forecasts [12][14] Group 5 - Major players in the hybrid bonding equipment market include Besi, which has seen significant revenue growth and strategic partnerships, particularly with Applied Materials [21][22] - South Korean companies like Hanmi Semiconductor and Hanwha Semitech are key competitors in the hybrid bonding space, with Hanmi holding a dominant market share in TCB machines [23][24] Group 6 - LG Electronics is entering the hybrid bonding equipment market through a national project aimed at developing HBM hybrid bonding machines, indicating a strategic focus on semiconductor equipment [25][26] - Samsung is also developing its own hybrid bonding machines through its subsidiary SEMES, aiming to reduce reliance on external suppliers [27] Group 7 - In China, companies like Tuojing Technology and Qinghe Crystal Semiconductor are making strides in hybrid bonding equipment, with Qinghe announcing the launch of the world's first dual-mode hybrid bonding equipment [29] - Besi predicts that the hybrid bonding market will reach €1.2 billion by 2030, driven by the transition from TCB to hybrid bonding technology [29]