机构研究周报：恒生科技利率敏感性高，美联储年内或再降息两次

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing preference for Hong Kong's technology sector, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, due to its high sensitivity to interest rates and the anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a downward revision in the long-term federal funds rate expectations for 2025-2028, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. - The anticipated weakening of the US dollar and the release of global liquidity may lead to a reallocation of funds towards Chinese capital markets, benefiting RMB assets [3]. Group 2: Equity Market Trends - Recent market performance shows a divergence between stock market strength and weak economic data, with a few tech stocks driving significant index gains [5]. - The market is expected to transition from extreme differentiation to a more balanced rotation, focusing on sectors with strong industrial trends such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy [6]. - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains due to rate cut expectations and positive sentiment around the AI industry, with the Hang Seng Index reaching its highest level since 2021 [7]. Group 3: Industry Research - The AI sector is rapidly advancing, with domestic capabilities in AI hardware and models narrowing the gap with international standards, creating investment opportunities in related industries [9]. - The Chinese AI chip market is projected to reach nearly $50 billion, with increasing domestic demand for local chips as international supply becomes constrained [10]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is particularly favored by foreign capital due to its offshore characteristics and relatively low valuations, making it a key area for investment during the current rate cut cycle [11]. Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - Morgan Asset Management suggests a higher probability of two additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which may enhance the appeal of long-duration government bonds [13]. - The ongoing dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy is expected to continue, with a focus on sectors like digital economy and green transition [14]. - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations of increased monetary policy easing, which could provide better entry points for domestic bond markets [15].