鲍威尔的最后一搏？新美联储通讯社：降息是权衡“政治”和“经济”压力后的艰难选择

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that Powell's decision to cut interest rates, despite the absence of clear recession signals, represents a high-risk policy gamble aimed at demonstrating the Federal Reserve's independence and fulfilling its dual mandate [3][4]. Economic Context - Powell faces unprecedented political opposition and economic uncertainty as his term nears its end, making current policy decisions more complex and risky than ever [3][4]. - The significant slowdown in the job market is a key factor prompting the Fed's rate cut, with recent data showing a drastic reduction in average job growth from 150,000 to 29,000 [4][5]. Structural vs. Cyclical Concerns - There are concerns that the Fed may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical slowdowns, influenced by policies from the Trump administration that could permanently alter production capabilities [5]. - Experts warn against the risks of excessive rate cuts, as persistent inflation concerns among consumers and businesses may lead to sustained higher inflation [5]. Political Pressures and Internal Consensus - Maintaining internal consensus within the Fed amidst political pressures is a significant challenge for Powell, who has managed to secure support for the rate cut despite differing views on the economic outlook [7]. - The division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts indicates ongoing debates and potential challenges for Powell's leadership [7]. Market Reactions and Future Implications - The thriving stock market raises questions about consumer spending stability, as businesses invest heavily in AI infrastructure, but income growth may eventually lead to reduced spending [8]. - Powell's policy experiment could determine the future independence and effectiveness of the Fed, impacting not only the U.S. economy but also global monetary policy [8]. Historical Outcomes - The article outlines three potential historical outcomes of Powell's policy gamble: a successful "soft landing" akin to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, or the failure of rate cuts to prevent recession as seen in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [10].