国际货币体系再平衡中的美债地位及其冲击评估｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article quantitatively assesses the mechanism of U.S. Treasury bond sell-off and rising interest rates, evaluates the medium to long-term debt pressure in the U.S., and analyzes the structural reasons behind the failure of the "negative beta" property of U.S. Treasuries. It also discusses the historical logic and current support for the status of U.S. Treasuries as a global safe asset, and explores the medium to long-term impacts of foreign official reductions in U.S. Treasuries and the decline of the dollar's reserve status, while seeking alternatives for global safe assets to escape the "dollar trap" and accelerate the diversification of the international monetary system [2]. Assessment of Short-term Impact of Treasury Sell-off and U.S. Debt Pressure - The U.S. has historically achieved debt self-circulation through the "dollar circulation mechanism," but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may disrupt this mechanism, raising market concerns. The concentrated sell-off of U.S. Treasuries in early April 2025 reached approximately $40 billion, causing a short-term impact of about 50 basis points on the 10-year Treasury yield, marking the largest single-day increase since the 2008 financial crisis [4][6]. - The sell-off by foreign investors, particularly private investors, has shifted the demand structure for U.S. Treasuries from official dominance to a trend led by high trading activity and risk sensitivity [4][6]. Concerns Over U.S. Government Debt Sustainability - Foreign investors' sell-off behavior is driven by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt. The federal debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from an average of 36% (1975-2005) to 100% in 2025, with projections indicating it could reach 156% by 2055. This increase in debt will lead to net interest payments rising from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 5.4% in 2055 [6][7]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over the growing debt burden and the potential for a vicious cycle of deficit expansion and interest crowding out [7][8]. Long-term Debt and Interest Rate Relationship - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a slight increase in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to be 4.1% in 2025 and rise to 3.8% by 2055. However, the CBO warns that if debt growth exceeds expectations or if international demand for U.S. Treasuries declines, interest rates and costs may be higher than currently predicted [7][8]. - Estimates suggest that a 1% increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio could lead to a 3.2 basis point rise in the 5-year Treasury yield, with a more significant impact from deficits [8]. Geopolitical Adjustments and Central Bank Behavior - The geopolitical landscape has prompted central banks to diversify their asset allocations away from a singular reliance on the dollar, with 96% of surveyed central banks viewing U.S. tariff policies as a significant geopolitical risk. This shift reflects a defensive adjustment to geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties [9]. - Central banks are expected to gradually reduce their dollar holdings while increasing allocations to corporate bonds and equities, indicating a long-term trend away from dollar dependency [9]. Evolution of U.S. Treasury's Safe Asset Status - The U.S. Treasury's status as a safe asset has been reinforced during crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, where demand for safe assets surged, solidifying the "dollar trap" phenomenon. Historically, U.S. Treasuries have exhibited a negative beta characteristic, with yields declining during periods of market turmoil [10][12]. - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the deep binding of the international financial system to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, as investors sought high liquidity and low credit risk during times of instability [12].