Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% in late July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market. A breach of 7.5% could signal potential risks [12][13][14]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently at 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. - The third indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days, indicating potential for continued upward movement [20][21]. - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak seen in 2022, suggesting that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. Group 2: New Investor Activity - The fifth indicator is the number of new brokerage accounts opened, which serves as a gauge for retail investor participation. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, significantly lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October of the previous year, indicating that the current bull market is still in its early stages [33][34]. - The analysis concludes that as of late August or early September, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet [37]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that investors, particularly retail investors, should consider holding onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at current levels, especially around the 3800-3900 point range, due to the risk of potential downturns [39][42]. - It emphasizes that this bull market is characterized by structural trends where stronger stocks outperform, and investors should be selective to avoid long-term losses [43][44]. Group 4: Educational Offerings - The article promotes a live course designed to help investors understand market dynamics and identify investment opportunities, offering insights into capital market trends and asset allocation strategies [50][56].
这轮大A行情能否持续？关键看这几个信号！
大胡子说房·2025-09-20 05:49