联储降息，短期波动加大，长期影响几何？丨周度量化观察

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline of 0.30% this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3899.96 points. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 196 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at historically high levels [1][3] - The bond market saw a tightening of the funding environment, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening. The central bank injected over 100 billion yuan to support liquidity [1][2] - The COMEX gold price remained flat for the week following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which was in line with market expectations [1][3] Stock Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut marks the beginning of a global liquidity easing phase, which is expected to benefit domestic equity markets. The current market fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking and seasonal factors, but these are not expected to have a long-term impact [3][4] - The fundamental drivers of the market are seen as a combination of capital inflow and industrial catalysts, particularly in the technology sector, which is anticipated to continue providing investment opportunities [3][4] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market's short-term outlook shows improved odds for adjustments, but there may still be headwinds in sentiment. The strategy is focused on short-duration and coupon strategies [4][5] - The lack of significant improvement in the fundamental outlook suggests that bonds will continue to serve as a stabilizing asset in broader asset allocation [4][5] Commodity Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cut has somewhat dampened the rapid interest rate cut sentiment in the market, leading to a potential cooling of gold prices in the short term. However, long-term factors such as geopolitical issues and the possibility of further rate cuts maintain gold's investment value [5][6] - The South China Commodity Index rose by 0.24% this week, with notable increases in black commodities and energy chemicals, while precious metals and agricultural products saw declines [31][33] Overseas Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's rate cut was a preventive measure against weakening employment data, and future rate cut schedules will depend on employment statistics. The overall economic fundamentals continue to support U.S. stock market performance, with high market sentiment [6][7] - Global fiscal expansion across major economies is expected to support fundamentals and risk appetite, emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation in overseas investments [6][7]