中金：“十五五”的潜在政策动态

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, shifting from reliance on real estate and traditional infrastructure to a new economic development model focused on innovation, green development, coordination, openness, and sharing [2][4]. Economic Transformation - The economic development model is transitioning to rely more on new economies, with a notable decline in housing prices and a slowdown in credit growth, leading to increased downward pressure on economic growth [2][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen most major indicators completed ahead of schedule, including GDP growth and labor productivity [6][9]. Innovation and Technology - R&D investment has significantly increased, with total R&D expenditure reaching 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, up 1.2 trillion yuan from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [10]. - The complexity of China's economy has risen, with advancements in key technologies such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [12][21]. Green Development - China has made significant strides in green development, with forest coverage exceeding 25% and a notable reduction in PM2.5 levels [21][22]. - The energy structure is rapidly transforming, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach around 20% by 2025 [22]. Regional and Urban-Rural Coordination - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes balanced development between urban and rural areas, with significant improvements in agricultural infrastructure and rural self-development capabilities [27][28]. - Urbanization rates have increased, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% by 2024, ahead of the planned target [28][45]. High-Level Opening Up - China's exports showed resilience, with total exports reaching 3.58 trillion USD in 2024, an increase of nearly 1 trillion USD from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [30][34]. - The negative list for foreign investment has been continuously reduced, with all restrictions in the manufacturing sector eliminated [38][40]. Shared Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes people's well-being, with a focus on reducing income and public service disparities [43][44]. - The average disposable income per capita increased from 32,200 yuan in 2020 to 41,300 yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 5.8% [44][46].