Core Viewpoint - Metals play a crucial role in geopolitical economic competition, with industrialization serving as a key link between metal resources and geopolitical dynamics. The interplay of re-industrialization in the US and Europe, strategic emerging industries, and industrialization in developing countries is significant in this context [2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Metal Supply and Demand - Metals are strategic resources that reflect a country's manufacturing capability and are closely tied to national security. The importance of metals has risen in the context of intensified geopolitical competition [6][12]. - The geographical distribution of metal resources is highly concentrated, leading to significant supply constraints. For instance, cobalt reserves are predominantly located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for over 50% of global reserves and 70%-80% of supply [18][20]. - The demand for metals is primarily driven by industrialized regions, such as East Asia, Europe, and North America, while supply is concentrated in South America, Oceania, and Africa, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [16][23]. Group 2: Industrialization and Metal's Role - Industrialization is categorized into three types: re-industrialization in developed countries, new industrialization driven by green and digital transitions, and industrialization in developing countries. Metals are essential for all these industrialization processes [27][35]. - The re-industrialization efforts in the US and Europe are constrained by high dependence on metal imports, with the EU's net imports of iron ore reaching about 70% in 2022 [28][29]. - The development of new industries, particularly in clean energy and semiconductors, heavily relies on metals. For example, lithium, cobalt, and nickel are critical for battery performance in electric vehicles [36][37]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategies - China possesses significant advantages in metal smelting and processing, which enhances its competitive position in geopolitical economic competition. The country has a dominant share in the global rare earth market, with over 90% of rare earth refining capacity [38][39]. - The scale of China's metal processing capabilities allows for lower production costs, making it a key player in the supply chain for various metals, including lithium and strategic small metals like tungsten [44][55]. - China's response to geopolitical risks in the metal sector includes enhancing recycling capabilities, tapping into domestic resources, and securing foreign reserves [2][51].
地缘经济论 | 第四章 金属、工业化与地缘经济竞争
中金点睛·2025-09-20 00:07