CGI深度 | 迈向碳达峰的“十五五”：挑战、行动和投融资

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is a critical period for achieving carbon peak goals in China, highlighting the need for targeted actions in green investment and carbon reduction strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Key Actions for Carbon Peak - Three key action areas for achieving carbon peak during the "15th Five-Year Plan" are identified: industrial structure "de-redundancy," economic activity "electrification," and power generation structure "cleanliness" [3][4]. - The total green investment demand in these areas is estimated to reach 17.5 trillion yuan, with a cumulative reduction of 1.6 billion tons of carbon emissions, potentially driving an annual GDP growth of 1.2% [3][7]. Group 2: Carbon Peak Goals and Challenges - The article quantifies the carbon peak goals, projecting a 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 and an increase in non-fossil energy share to approximately 25% [8][9]. - Challenges include the rising share of high-energy-consuming industries and a slowdown in electrification progress, which have increased carbon reduction pressures [4][15]. Group 3: Industrial Structure "De-redundancy" - The focus on industrial structure "de-redundancy" aims to optimize supply-side structures to reduce the share of high-energy-consuming industries, with a continued emphasis on capacity governance in sectors like cement and steel [4][30]. - The expected reduction in the share of secondary industries from 36% to around 33% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to support a GDP growth rate of around 5% [23][30]. Group 4: Economic Activity "Electrification" - The electrification of industrial, transportation, and building sectors is projected to contribute significantly to carbon reduction, with expected electrification rates of 35%, 12%, and 65% respectively by 2030 [36][57]. - The electrification process is expected to face challenges in balancing economic efficiency and emission reduction effectiveness [35][36]. Group 5: Power Generation Structure "Cleanliness" - The article highlights the need for a transition to non-fossil energy sources, with an anticipated addition of 1.17 billion kilowatts of non-fossil energy capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [65][66]. - The flexibility of the power system will be crucial, requiring investments in coal power flexibility upgrades, energy storage, and demand response mechanisms [66][67].