中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、量化及ESG

Group 1: Strategy - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on Chinese assets is analyzed, highlighting three main aspects: easing external constraints on China's monetary policy, potential for a weaker dollar, and global capital reallocation [5] - The combination of dollar depreciation and a reversal in innovative narratives may drive the current market trend, with Chinese assets benefiting from a fragmented and diversified global monetary system [5] - Proper policy responses could lead to a dual benefit for RMB assets from the accelerated fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system, potentially attracting foreign capital back to Chinese markets [5] Group 2: Macroeconomy - Financial cycle adjustments are expected to significantly alter asset allocation, with a systematic increase in the proportion of safe assets and a potential decrease in real estate allocation, even if property prices return to previous highs [8][9] - The shift in the financial cycle reflects a transformation in economic growth models and monetary sources, with non-monetary factors like increased stock dividend rates and long-term capital inflows providing support for the stock market [9] Group 3: Strategy - The concept of the "dollar trap" is discussed, where emerging markets face a dilemma of holding large dollar assets while suffering from diminishing purchasing power [9] - The sustainability of the dollar system is questioned, with the author suggesting that the three supporting pillars of the "dollar trap" may be weakening, making it possible to break free from this trap [9] Group 4: Macroeconomy - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, but there are significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future cuts [12] - The current economic issues in the U.S. are attributed to rising costs rather than insufficient demand, indicating that excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation and lead to a "stagflation-like" scenario [12] Group 5: Quantitative and ESG - Recent regulatory changes in the public fund industry aim to optimize investor experience by discouraging frequent trading and promoting long-term value creation [14] - The new regulations may reshape the public fund ecosystem and influence the future business models of public bond fund investors [14]