金属周报 | 降息落地，“利多出尽”后金属何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting highlighted significant divisions among members, indicating ongoing challenges for the Fed's independence and a prevailing expectation for future rate cuts, which supports a long-term upward trend for gold and copper prices [2][6][8]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% and silver by 1.6%, while SHFE gold and silver fell by 0.73% and 0.89% respectively [4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, leading to a slight pullback in precious metal prices as the market had already priced in the rate cut [8][26]. - Despite the cautious tone from Fed Chair Powell, the long-term drivers for gold remain strong due to a weak labor market, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the dollar's credibility [8][53]. Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a technical pullback, with COMEX copper down by 0.38% and SHFE copper down by 1.52% [4]. - The FOMC meeting led to a retreat in copper prices as traders took profits, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the meeting [6][10]. - Despite being in a typical consumption peak season, copper demand has shown weakness, and while price declines may stimulate some buying, expectations for a robust demand recovery are tempered [12][53]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased, surpassing 310,000 tons, indicating potential supply pressures despite a forecasted rise in imports [12][13]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index fell to -41.25 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious market with subdued trading activity [15]. Market Dynamics - The overall market sentiment for both precious metals and copper is influenced by the Fed's policy direction, with ongoing discussions about future rate cuts being a key factor in price movements [6][8][10]. - The interplay between supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the copper market, suggests that while prices may stabilize, significant upward movement is limited due to anticipated increases in imports and existing supply pressures [12][13].