独家洞察 | 宽松预期下美股大涨，降息盛宴还是风险陷阱？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a consensus around a 25 basis point cut, while some investors speculate a possibility of a 50 basis point reduction. This follows a series of rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September 2024, but the Fed has paused its actions since March 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The capital markets are experiencing significant excitement, with the Nasdaq 100 index achieving its longest winning streak of 2023, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time closing highs. The S&P 500 closed up 30.99 points, or 0.47%, at 6615.28 points, surpassing its previous high of 6587.47 points [3]. - President Trump has publicly urged the Fed to implement more aggressive rate cuts, which has drawn market attention and reflects ongoing political pressure on monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Morgan Asset Management's chief global strategist warns that if the Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by political pressure, it could increase risks for stocks, bonds, and the dollar. He notes that the current market may be in a bubble, and easing policies could weaken demand rather than boost it [4]. - The core variables for the Fed's decision on rate cuts remain inflation and employment. High inflation can erode purchasing power, while low employment signals economic weakness, necessitating rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.18 percentage points to 0.38%, driven by increases in food and energy prices, while the core CPI rose by 0.35%, aligning with expectations. Concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher have not materialized as expected, allowing for potential rate cuts [5]. - Employment data shows an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and initial jobless claims have surged to a two-year high, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Fed [5]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Risks - The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut rates, with a 96.1% probability for a 25 basis point cut, while a 50 basis point cut has only a 3.9% probability. The real test will be the market's reaction post-policy implementation [6]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and cautious, balancing the benefits of rate cuts against the risks of economic slowdown, to ensure effective asset allocation during this transitional period [6].