国泰海通｜煤炭：反内卷供给收缩超预期，板块供需扭转吸引力抬升

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices are expected to rebound during the off-season, with pressure anticipated in the first half of 2026, but the situation will improve compared to the same period in 2025, with coal prices potentially rising above 800 RMB/ton in the second half of 2026 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coal price has shown an upward trend during the off-season, with the price at the Huanghua Port for Q5500 coal reaching 714 RMB/ton as of September 19, 2025, an increase of 3.5% from the previous week [3]. - The overall coal production in July and August was 3.8 billion tons and 3.9 billion tons respectively, which is significantly lower than the average monthly production over the past year and a half, indicating a contraction in coal supply [2]. - The demand side has improved, with total electricity consumption in July increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rising by 4.3%, showing a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while there was a month-on-month increase of 10 million tons [2]. - The production capacity checks in various provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, have led to a reduction in coal output, with expectations of a slight decrease in total production in the second half of the year due to these checks [2]. - The total coal production for the year is projected to be between 4.75 billion and 4.8 billion tons, remaining stable year-on-year, alongside a decrease in imports [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Comparisons - As of September 17, 2025, the price of main coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.9% increase, while the port's primary coke price was 1704 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% [4]. - The cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal, with the North Port (Q5500) being 8 RMB/ton cheaper than Australian Newcastle coal [4].