专题 | 2025上半年房企存货管理专题——典型房企计提减值准备仍在继续

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the inventory management of 50 typical listed real estate companies, revealing the industry's practices in "scale contraction" and "risk mitigation" to optimize inventory structure and provide insights for investors to assess industry risks [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - The total inventory of real estate companies has declined for four consecutive years, with a decrease of 4.6% in the first half of 2025, totaling 8.14 trillion yuan compared to 8.53 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 [6][8]. - The decline in inventory is consistent across different tiers of companies, with the largest drop seen in the TOP31-50 and TOP51-100 tiers, exceeding 7%, while the TOP10 tier experienced a smaller decline of 2.3% [8]. - The inventory structure includes development inventory and completed inventory, with the latter directly impacting liquidity; a higher proportion of completed inventory indicates potential liquidity pressure [5][10]. Group 2: Completed Inventory and Current Housing - The proportion of completed inventory reached a five-year high at 26.9%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [19]. - 56% of companies reported an increase in the proportion of completed inventory, indicating significant differentiation between leading companies and those under high pressure [21]. Group 3: Impairment Provisions - The inventory impairment ratio has continued to rise, with private companies reaching 13.12%, indicating significant asset impairment challenges [23][28]. - The total impairment provision balance for the first half of 2025 was 159.8 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.8% from the beginning of the year, but the overall impairment pressure remains high [23][25]. Group 4: Investment and Inventory Management Strategies - The proportion of inventory to total assets has decreased to 47.7%, reflecting a shift towards liquidity prioritization among real estate companies [31]. - Companies are adopting strategies such as "old project discounts + new project quick turnover" to manage inventory effectively and improve cash flow [32][36].