刚果钴配额制来袭，2025仅剩1.8万吨

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant tightening of cobalt supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) new export quota system, which will impact the global battery supply chain and potentially lead to increased cobalt prices and a shift towards cobalt-free materials in the long term [3][10][11]. Summary by Sections Cobalt Export Quota Changes - The DRC will end its eight-month export ban on October 15, transitioning to a strict quota system, which will result in a clearer and tighter supply landscape for the domestic battery industry [2][3]. - The remaining export quota for 2025 is set at 18,100 tons, which is over 60% lower than the actual export volume from the previous year, leading to a global cobalt supply reduction of 67,000 tons [3][4]. Quota Allocation and Impact - The DRC's annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 are set at 96,600 tons, significantly lower than the 220,000 tons produced in 2024, indicating that the quota will be less than half of the production capacity [4]. - The quota distribution will be based on historical export volumes, reserving 10% for key projects in the DRC, which may disadvantage smaller mining companies and those without operational mines [5]. Domestic Market Implications - Following the lifting of the export ban, the first batch of 3,625 tons of cobalt will not arrive at domestic ports until late January next year, creating an import gap where the domestic market will rely on existing inventory [6]. - The average monthly consumption in the domestic battery supply chain is between 12,000 to 14,000 tons, with peak demand reaching up to 17,800 tons, indicating a need to consume 45,000 to 50,000 tons of inventory in Q4 [7]. Price Trends and Market Reactions - As a result of the tightening supply, cobalt prices have risen, reaching 280,000 yuan per ton, with expectations to stabilize between 300,000 to 350,000 yuan per ton [8]. - Battery manufacturers and cathode material producers are preemptively stockpiling materials, anticipating increased demand for high-performance models in the peak season [7][8]. Long-term Industry Shifts - The tightening of cobalt supply may accelerate the development of cobalt-free materials as battery manufacturers adapt to rising costs and supply constraints [9][11]. - Historical trends show that during previous spikes in cobalt prices, the lithium battery industry considered moving towards cobalt-free solutions, with companies like Hive Energy and Tesla exploring high-nickel, cobalt-free battery technologies [12]. Conclusion - The DRC's new export policies are expected to create a competitive resource environment among China, Japan, and Europe, with immediate effects on battery manufacturers needing to manage inventory and costs while potentially driving innovation towards alternative materials [10][11].