【广发宏观王丹】从EPMI数据看9月经济

Core Viewpoint - The September EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, indicating a seasonal recovery typical of autumn, although the absolute level remains historically low [1][6][24]. Group 1: EPMI and Industry Trends - The EPMI's increase aligns with the seasonal average of 4.5 points from 2014 to 2024, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 2 to 4 [1][6][7]. - Despite the improvement, the absolute EPMI value of 52.4 is the second lowest for September in history, down 0.9 points from the previous year [6][24]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key supply and demand indicators showed improvement: production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 7.8, 6.5, and 6.8 points respectively [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio turned positive, with an average of 0.7 for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating an improvement in supply-demand balance compared to previous years [9][10]. - Price indicators also improved, with purchase prices and sales prices rising by 0.8 and 0.2 points respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to July and August [9][12]. Group 3: Employment and Financing Environment - The EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 0.9 points, suggesting a more favorable financing environment for emerging enterprises due to increased credit support and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [15][16]. - Employment indicators have shown a two-month recovery, with a 2.6-point increase in September, indicating stronger demand for jobs in new industries during the graduation season [15][16]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In September, the highest absolute economic performance was observed in the new generation information technology and energy-saving environmental sectors, driven by demand growth related to AI computing power and domestic substitution [19][20]. - The new energy vehicle sector also saw a month-on-month increase in economic performance, with retail sales growing by 6% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19][20]. - The performance of traditional sectors varied, with some industries like petroleum asphalt and automotive tires showing increased operating rates, while others like high furnace and PVC saw declines [23][24]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - The third quarter has shown signs of continued economic slowdown, with September data being crucial for short-term economic assessment [24]. - The EPMI data suggests a neutral economic outlook, with seasonal recovery not extending the trends observed in July and August, indicating that achieving annual growth targets will require further policy support [24].