存储市场上行趋势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increases in the memory market, particularly in storage devices, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a notable focus on the impact of AI applications on demand growth [4][9][10]. Price Expectations - Recent price forecasts for the storage market have been revised upwards, with LPDDR5 contract prices expected to rise by 6-8%, LPDDR4 by 40-50%, and NAND Flash by 15%. Surprisingly, prices are expected to remain high even in the traditionally weak first quarter of 2026, indicating a significant shift in market supply-demand structure [4]. Supply Side Analysis - On the supply side, manufacturers are strategically shifting focus away from DDR4/LPDDR4 production towards higher-end products like DDR5 and HBM, leading to a reduction in DDR4/LPDDR4 capacity. High-end production capacity is fully utilized, while NAND capacity remains below 80% with no large-scale expansion plans, resulting in a severe supply elasticity issue [8]. Demand Side Analysis - The demand for storage devices is primarily driven by mobile phones, PCs, and servers, with servers accounting for about 30% of the demand. The shift in AI applications from training to inference is driving explosive growth in demand for LPDDR5x, DDR5, HBM, and enterprise SSDs [9][10]. Comparison with Previous Market Cycles - The current memory market cycle shows similarities to the 2016-2018 cycle, with both experiencing significant price surges and production cuts by major manufacturers. However, the underlying drivers differ, with the current cycle being fueled by structural demand from AI applications rather than just cyclical demand from smartphones and cloud computing [11][12]. Differences in Demand Drivers - The previous cycle was characterized by a general increase in demand due to smartphone upgrades and cloud computing, while the current cycle is driven by a structural and explosive demand from AI applications, which require higher performance storage solutions [13]. Differences in Supply Adjustment Logic - The previous supply adjustments were reactive and aimed at clearing inventory, while the current adjustments are proactive, with manufacturers permanently reallocating capacity to higher-margin products, leading to a long-term supply gap in traditional memory products [14]. Sustainability of the Current Market Cycle - The previous cycle's demand was closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer electronics, leading to a decline as smartphone markets saturated. In contrast, the current demand is driven by the AI technology revolution, providing a more stable and long-term demand foundation [15]. Bernstein's Perspective - Bernstein highlights that the short-term price increases in NAND are driven by rising AI inference demand and HDD shortages, but expresses caution regarding the long-term outlook for NAND due to potential supply increases or demand decreases. In contrast, they maintain a more optimistic view on the prospects for DRAM and HBM [17]. NAND Market Dynamics - The short-term price increases in NAND are attributed to heightened AI inference demand and HDD shortages, with suppliers raising prices by 10%-30%. Bernstein anticipates a slight decline in ASP in 2025, followed by a 13% increase in 2026, but expects prices to drop in late 2026 as new supply comes online [18]. HBM and DRAM Market Outlook - Bernstein remains optimistic about the HBM and DRAM markets, predicting a 53% year-on-year increase in HBM shipments in 2026, with costs decreasing more than expected. Major suppliers are expected to benefit from market expansion despite competitive pressures [19].