海上风电：错过开场又如何？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slow development of offshore wind power globally, highlighting the challenges and emerging opportunities in the sector as countries set ambitious installation targets for the future [2][30]. Group 1: Current State of Offshore Wind Power - As of the end of 2024, the global cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power is 83.2 GW, which is only one-third of China's annual new photovoltaic installation capacity [2][4]. - The global offshore wind power market is primarily concentrated in China and Europe, with other regions lagging significantly [2][4]. - The high costs, unique challenges of marine environments, technical difficulties, and declining subsidies are key factors contributing to the slow growth of offshore wind power [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind power is $0.079 per kWh, more than double that of onshore wind power at $0.034 per kWh [6]. - The average installation cost for offshore wind power is $2,852 per kW, compared to $1,041 per kW for onshore wind [6]. - The internal rate of return (IRR) for offshore wind projects is typically lower than that of onshore wind and solar projects, ranging from 6% to 7% [10]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages of Offshore Wind - Offshore wind power is strategically located closer to load centers, reducing the need for long-distance transmission from inland sources [12]. - Countries with limited land area, such as those in Europe and East Asia, have greater market potential for offshore wind power [12]. - Offshore wind resources benefit from higher wind speeds, greater stability, and more effective utilization hours compared to onshore wind [13][19]. Group 4: Future Growth Projections - In 2024, global new offshore wind installations are expected to reach 8,001 MW, with China contributing over 50% of this growth [21]. - The European market is projected to see significant growth, with the Global Wind Energy Council estimating an addition of 126 GW of offshore wind capacity over the next decade [32]. - Major countries like the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands have set aggressive installation targets, with the UK aiming for 50 GW by 2030 [32][33]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has prompted European countries to prioritize energy independence and renewable energy sources, including offshore wind [30]. - The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to improve the economic viability of offshore wind projects, with average turbine sizes increasing from 8-10 MW to 14-16 MW [30]. - The decline in financing costs due to lower interest rates is also making offshore wind projects more feasible [30].