一买就跌、一卖就涨？为什么市场总在针对我？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise of A-shares above 3800 points presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their portfolios, emphasizing the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate market volatility and potential downturns [4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Performance - Despite the current bullish market sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, a significant number of investors redeemed their holdings before the market's upswing, leading to missed opportunities [6]. - Data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds has continuously shrunk, with net redemptions peaking in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. Group 2: Volatility and Historical Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many global indices [10][11]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, highlighting the challenges of long-term holding for domestic investors [12]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Challenges - The desire to time the market is common among investors, but the reality often leads to missed opportunities, as evidenced by the significant drop in annualized returns when missing the best-performing days [16][18]. - From 2014 to the present, maintaining a position in equity funds yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days drastically reduces this return [16][18]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Given the high volatility of the A-share market, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance returns [22]. - Different asset classes exhibit varying risk-return characteristics, and combining low or negatively correlated assets can help reduce overall portfolio volatility [22][24]. Group 5: Simulation of Asset Allocation - Simulations show that adjusting the asset allocation to include dividend stocks and global indices can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market downturns [30][32]. - Incorporating bonds into the asset mix further stabilizes the portfolio, increasing the likelihood of maintaining positions during market fluctuations [35][37]. Group 6: Importance of Diversification - Diversification in asset allocation is emphasized as a crucial strategy for investors, with notable figures in finance advocating for a mix of uncorrelated return streams to enhance portfolio performance [38].