国泰海通｜海外策略：港股卖空占比降至历史低位

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with valuations continuing to rise, and the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropping to a historical low [1]. Market Performance - Global markets rose slightly last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.1%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose significantly. Commodity prices saw gold increase slightly, while oil and copper prices fell. Currency-wise, the U.S. dollar remained stable, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen depreciated, and the Chinese yuan remained stable. The consumer discretionary and information technology sectors performed notably well [2]. Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets increased significantly, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks reached a historical low. The Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 saw a decrease in trading volume, while the S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Korea's Kospi 200 experienced an increase. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and is at a historically high level, while sentiment in the U.S. decreased but remains high. Volatility decreased in Hong Kong and Japanese stocks, while it increased in U.S. and European stocks. Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, while U.S. tech earnings expectations continued to be revised upward. Specifically, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was adjusted from 2066 to 2068. The EPS forecast for the S&P 500 remained unchanged at 269, and the EPS forecast for the Eurozone STOXX 50 also remained unchanged at 337 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the U.S. improved last week. The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index rose, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and accelerated AI infrastructure investments by tech giants. The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, likely due to low core inflation and a rebound in industrial production. Conversely, the Economic Surprise Index in China declined, possibly due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [3]. Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market is speculating on the future path of rate cuts. As of September 19, futures market implied rates indicate that the market expects approximately 1.8 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Last week, U.S. dollar liquidity shifted towards a looser stance. In terms of global micro liquidity, funds primarily flowed into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Additionally, there was a net inflow of capital into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect program [3].