国泰海通｜交运：重视航空超级周期长逻辑，关注公商恢复持续性

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" with a significant upward trend in profitability by 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Long-term Logic of Aviation - The Chinese aviation industry has established a long-term growth logic, with two key conditions for ticket price increases achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan: market-oriented pricing and high passenger load factors that can effectively transmit to ticket prices [1]. - The supply side has entered a low-growth era, with airlines rationalizing capital expenditure due to low expected returns on new aircraft, leading to a stable fleet planning [1]. - On the demand side, aviation consumption remains in a low-frequency and low-penetration stage, with the demographic dividend for air travel still intact, supporting a steady long-term growth trend [1]. Group 2: Q3 Performance Insights - Despite a temporary weakening in business travel demand during the summer peak season, airlines are still expected to report profits higher than Q3 2019, aided by reduced fuel costs and a recovery in demand post-September [2]. - The initial recovery in business travel demand in April-May was followed by a dip in July-August, but profitability is projected to increase year-on-year due to favorable pricing dynamics [2]. - The expectation of a strong recovery in business travel demand in September, driven by major events, suggests that airlines may achieve record-high demand levels for this period [2]. Group 3: Q4 Outlook - The upcoming Golden Week is anticipated to drive strong travel demand, with airlines optimistic about pre-sale volumes and pricing [3]. - Monitoring the recovery of business travel demand post-October meetings is crucial, as sustained recovery could lead to a significant increase in airline profitability by 2026 [3]. - The focus on reducing internal competition among state-owned airlines is expected to support profitability improvements and a reduction in losses during the off-peak season [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to strategically invest in the aviation sector, emphasizing high-quality airline networks, as the long-term logic of the "super cycle" is expected to provide dual opportunities for performance and valuation [3].