美股IPO·2025-09-24 00:25Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities believes that NIO has successfully reversed its sales decline due to strong sales of new models, but its financial situation remains fragile [1][3][4]. Sales Performance - NIO has turned around its sales slump with strong orders for new models, particularly the Lido L90 and the new ES8, which have solid demand [3][5]. - The Lido L90 model maintains an order volume of 2,000 to 3,000 units per week, while confirmed orders for the new ES8 have approached 50,000 units, exceeding the production capacity for the remainder of 2025 [5][6]. Financial Situation - Despite the temporary alleviation of sales challenges, NIO's financial condition is still considered weak compared to its competitors [4][7]. - A key detail is that the company's shareholder equity has only recently turned positive after a recent equity offering, indicating an unstable financial foundation [7]. Profitability Forecast - Nomura has adjusted its financial forecasts for NIO, indicating short-term pressure but long-term improvement [8]. - The delivery forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been reduced by 9.5% to 352,000 units, and revenue for the same year has been cut by 11.7% due to transitional impacts [8]. - However, thanks to strong momentum from new models, delivery forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.9% and 12.7%, respectively [8]. - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate of 32% for NIO's revenue from fiscal years 2024 to 2027 [8]. Rating and Target Price - Nomura maintains a "neutral" rating on NIO and has raised the target price from $5.00 to $8.40, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current closing price of $6.91 [9].