突然暴跌！阿根廷取消农作物出口税，影响有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine government has decided to eliminate export taxes on certain agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and wheat, before October 31. This policy aims to enhance foreign exchange supply and stabilize the local currency, which may impact global soybean and soybean meal prices [5][7]. Group 1: Argentine Export Policy - The export tax on soybeans was previously set at 26%, and for soybean meal, it was 24.5%. The removal of these taxes is expected to provide a price advantage for Argentine soybeans, potentially affecting the pricing of soybean meal in the domestic market [5][7]. - Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean meal and oil, holding 36% and 46% of the global market share, respectively. However, China's imports of soybean meal from Argentina are minimal, with only 32,000 tons expected in 2024 [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent policy change may exacerbate the already pessimistic outlook for U.S. soybean exports, as China has halted purchases of U.S. soybeans due to trade tensions. This situation creates a narrow competitive window for U.S. soybeans before Brazilian crops become available [10][11]. - The average export of Argentine soybeans from September to December over the past five years is only 1.46 million tons, indicating that the supply shock from Argentina may be limited despite the price advantages [10][11]. Group 3: Price and Supply Analysis - The current domestic inquiry for soybeans is focused on shipments from South America for October and November, with an estimated shortfall of 3.5 million tons for November shipments. The profitability of Brazilian soybeans has worsened, while Argentine soybeans show a significant profitability advantage [11][12]. - The estimated soybean arrivals for September to November are projected at 10.3 million tons, 9 million tons, and 7.5 million tons, respectively, indicating ongoing supply pressure in the near term [12].