研客专栏 | 商品：供给叙事的托底特征日渐明朗？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the commodity market in relation to global liquidity and monetary policy, particularly in the context of the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to influence commodity prices and demand recovery [4][11]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Commodity Market - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to create a new narrative for future rate cuts, impacting the commodity market through liquidity-driven mechanisms, demand recovery expectations, and inflation trading [4][11]. - The market often anticipates these changes, as seen with gold prices rising before the actual rate cut, followed by a "sell the fact" reaction post-announcement [5]. Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [5][6]. - China's PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting some improvement in energy and raw material prices [6]. Export and Consumption Trends - China's export growth in USD terms was 4.4% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed, particularly in exports to the US, which fell by 33.1% [6]. - Domestic consumption, as reflected in retail sales, grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a still-weak recovery in internal demand [6]. Commodity Supply Dynamics - Certain metals are showing signs of demand recovery, with lithium carbonate experiencing strong demand due to government policies and international orders, reflecting a 246% year-on-year increase in orders [7]. - The new energy storage initiatives set by the government are expected to drive significant growth in the lithium battery sector, with a direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [7]. Industrial Silicon and Coal Supply - The industrial silicon sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with production expected to decrease by 17% year-on-year in 2025 [8]. - Recent regulatory measures in Inner Mongolia indicate a tightening of coal supply, with potential production reductions of over 61 million tons if strict compliance is enforced [10]. Market Outlook - The current financial attributes are driving commodity price volatility, with expectations of price increases supported by supply-side constraints and a shift towards a more accommodative global liquidity environment [11]. - The article suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on specific commodities influenced by supply-side changes and macroeconomic events, while being cautious of potential downturns related to US economic data [11].