鲍威尔警告股市估值“相当高”，美股三连涨终结（附演讲全文）

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the challenges posed by the current risk environment [2][4][5] Economic Outlook - Recent data shows a slowdown in economic growth, with GDP growth rate around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year [19] - Unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, with job growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [18][19] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.7% over the past year [20][21] Monetary Policy - Powell warns of the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, stating that there is no risk-free policy path [4][22] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% in response to the changing risk balance [23][24] - Powell believes the current policy stance is still moderately restrictive but allows for better adaptation to economic changes [24] Market Reactions - Powell's comments about high stock valuations led to a decline in major stock indices, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 1% [3][14] - The Fed's focus on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as a way to navigate political pressures while maintaining a cautious stance [5][9] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is described as showing signs of substantial weakness, with Powell noting that it can no longer be considered robust [10][12] - Job vacancies remain stable, but the overall employment growth is insufficient to maintain the current unemployment rate [18][19]