大摩：美元已进入“熊市机制”！

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a sustained and widespread sell-off of the US dollar, citing potential negative impacts from government shutdown risks [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Bear Market Mechanism - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the US dollar has entered a "bear market mechanism," which is expected to persist for a longer duration, leading to significant selling pressure on the dollar [2]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, prioritizing job market protection even at the cost of tolerating higher-than-target inflation, is seen as a driving force behind the dollar's bear market [2][8]. - Market pricing suggests that the dollar's interest rate advantage will decrease by nearly 100 basis points over the next 12 months, significantly lowering the cost of shorting the dollar [3][16]. Group 2: Government Shutdown Risks - The rising risk of a government shutdown is viewed as a potential negative factor for the dollar, with market data indicating an increased probability of such an event [3][19]. - Historical data shows that government shutdowns typically lead to economic slowdowns, negatively impacting the dollar, with the current negative risk premium for the dollar at approximately -4% [20]. - A prolonged government shutdown could further elevate the dollar's risk premium and hinder the release of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [20][21]. Group 3: Shorting the Dollar - Morgan Stanley has expanded its "short list" for the dollar to include the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, based on their respective economic conditions and risk profiles [12]. - The anticipated reduction in the cost of shorting the dollar is expected to alleviate the punitive interest rate differentials that have challenged investors [13][16]. - Forward rates indicate that the cost of shorting the dollar could decrease by 50-75 basis points for most currencies, with a potential reduction of nearly 150 basis points for the dollar/yen pair [14][16].