蔚来4万辆ES8产能赌局：断供隐忧与神秘工厂

Core Viewpoint - The core strategy for NIO to reverse its market position is to successfully ramp up production capacity, particularly with the launch of the new ES8 and L90 models, which is crucial for moving out of a significant loss phase exceeding 100 billion yuan and into a profitable cycle driven by scale [3][15]. Production Capacity and Challenges - NIO's CEO Li Bin announced that the production capacity for the new ES8 in 2025 is expected to exceed 40,000 units, indicating that current orders likely surpass this number [3][14]. - The new ES8 production will primarily take place at the F3 factory in Hefei, which has not yet been officially announced, presenting a significant challenge for NIO [3][14]. - The F3 factory is currently under construction, with reports of workers and suppliers confirming that production for the ES8 is already underway, despite some supply chain disruptions [5][8][9]. Supply Chain and Production Management - NIO has faced past challenges with production delays due to supply chain issues, which have raised concerns in the market regarding its ability to meet demand [16]. - To mitigate risks of order loss due to production capacity issues, NIO has introduced a "peace of mind lock order" scheme, offering compensation for delays and tax subsidy vouchers to customers facing extended wait times [16][15]. Financial Implications - The average price of the new ES8 is around 400,000 yuan, meaning each unit sold contributes significantly to NIO's revenue and profit [16]. - Rapidly increasing production capacity and converting orders into deliveries is seen as the most direct way for NIO to generate operational cash flow in the short term [16].