全球央行议息周落幕，货币政策保持分化｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent monetary policy decisions made by major central banks, highlighting the divergence in their approaches, which may lead to increased volatility in global financial markets and a new phase in economic dynamics [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [4]. - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious balance between employment and inflation goals, with indications of a cooling labor market and rising inflation levels [4]. - The updated dot plot suggests an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points cuts in each of the next two years [4]. Group 2: Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada also cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first reduction in six months, following a cumulative decrease of 225 basis points since June 2024 [6]. - The decision was driven by a weakening economy, with a 1.5% decline in GDP and ongoing job market challenges, while inflation risks have diminished [6]. - The Bank will closely monitor export conditions and the overall economic impact of these trends [6]. Group 3: Bank of England - The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4%, pausing its previous rate cuts [8]. - The UK labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% in August, expected to rise to around 4% in September [8]. - The Bank plans to reduce its holdings of UK government bonds by £70 billion over the next 12 months as part of its monetary policy adjustments [8]. Group 4: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, while indicating potential future rate increases depending on economic and inflation forecasts [10]. - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, but short-term growth may be pressured by global economic slowdowns [10]. - Current inflation rates are between 2.5% and 2.9%, with expectations for gradual increases supported by improving economic conditions [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan align with market expectations, indicating that the market has already priced in the anticipated rate cuts and policy stances [10].