LSEG跟“宗” | 美联储2026、2027年降息指标“不靠谱” 市场主流未反映美息跌至1%

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and their potential impact on commodity markets, particularly gold and silver [2][26][27] - It highlights the current sentiment in the market regarding precious metals and the positioning of managed funds in the futures market [5][6][14] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% and indicated two more cuts this year, with further reductions expected in 2026 and 2027, although the magnitude is less than predicted by investment banks [2][26] - The article questions the need for rate cuts if the economy is performing well and inflation is controlled, suggesting that market expectations may not fully reflect potential future rate decreases [27][28] Group 2: Commodity Market Sentiment - Managed positions in COMEX gold showed a net long position of 499 tons, down 3.6% from the previous week, while silver's net long position increased to 5,930 tons, up 1.0% [5][6] - The article notes that gold prices have increased by 40.5% year-to-date, while fund long positions have decreased by 1.4% during the same period [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The article suggests that the current gold bull market may be in a consolidation phase, with indicators for its end being a return to a rate hike cycle or improved global cooperation leading to economic growth [27][28] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-silver ratio as a measure of market sentiment, which currently stands at 85.509, reflecting a 5.9% decline this year [21][22] Group 4: Fund Positioning and Trends - The article highlights that despite a general bullish sentiment towards commodities, managed funds have begun increasing short positions in precious metals, which may limit price increases [5][6][14] - The article also discusses the historical context of fund positioning in copper and other metals, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by external factors such as tariffs and geopolitical events [16][28]