伍治坚证据主义·2025-09-24 09:23Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly favoring U.S. stocks while simultaneously hedging against dollar risk, reflecting a lack of trust in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies [2][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index has dropped over 10% in 2025, indicating significant depreciation for a global reserve currency [2][5] - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. stocks remain one of the most attractive assets globally, with over 80% of foreign funds entering the U.S. stock market hedging against currency risk [5][6] - This shift represents a paradigm change, as historically, investors did not pay much attention to currency risk when investing in U.S. stocks [5][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Concerns - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, while other regions like Europe have ended their easing policies, leading to a loss of interest rate advantage for the dollar [6] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, especially with new appointments that align closely with political influences [6][8] - The combination of political influence on monetary policy and rising fiscal deficits raises doubts about the dollar's long-term stability [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.2% of GDP in 2024, with total federal debt nearing $36 trillion, over 30% of which will need refinancing within the next year [7] - The Treasury's reliance on rolling over debt raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, especially if monetary policy becomes politicized [7][8] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are opting for a strategy of "buying stocks while avoiding the dollar," indicating a preference for equity exposure over currency risk [6][8] - The current market dynamics suggest that while investors may benefit in the short term, the long-term viability of this strategy is questionable as the credibility of the dollar erodes [8][9]