当潮水未退：A股流动性观察

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the A-share market is a crucial factor influencing market trends, with a current situation where "inflow" exceeds "outflow" [1][24]. Inflow Analysis - Major sources of inflow in the A-share market include long-term funds such as social security, state-owned financial assets, and insurance, which play a stabilizing role during market downturns [2][4]. - The stock allocation of insurance funds has reached its highest level since 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 47.57% in equity allocation balance as of the second quarter [5]. - The stock positions of private equity and actively managed public funds have also significantly increased, indicating a growing risk appetite among investors [5][9]. - New account openings by individual investors have been increasing since June, although they have not yet reached the levels seen in October of the previous year [7]. - Foreign investment is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in interest from U.S. investors in the Chinese stock market, suggesting potential for further inflow [11]. Outflow Analysis - Current outflow factors, such as IPOs, refinancing, and major shareholder reductions, are at relatively low levels, which supports market liquidity [16][24]. - The IPO scale in 2025 has been historically low, with no significant increase in monthly IPO volumes despite market growth [16]. - The refinancing scale has also been low, with only 280 billion yuan raised in 2025, significantly below the average of 1.1 trillion yuan in previous years [19]. - Major shareholders have shown restraint in reducing their holdings, with net reductions around 160 billion yuan, much lower than the average of 450 billion yuan from 2019 to 2023 [21]. Overall Liquidity Status - The current liquidity in the A-share market remains ample, with inflows primarily from institutional investors and existing investors, while foreign and individual investors have not fully engaged [24][25]. - The overall market is characterized by a situation where inflow continues to exceed outflow, providing a solid foundation for sustained market performance [25].