绿色转型背景下关键矿产发展新特征及未来前景｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the accelerating global carbon neutrality process and the increasing demand for critical minerals driven by the transition to clean energy technologies, highlighting the complex geopolitical competition among major countries in securing these resources [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Critical Minerals - Critical minerals play an irreplaceable role in high-tech industries, clean energy technologies, and national defense, making supply security a key strategic consideration for countries [5]. - The global energy transition heavily relies on critical minerals, which are essential for ensuring energy security and supporting economic development [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for critical minerals is surging, with lithium demand projected to grow nearly 30% in 2024, significantly exceeding the 10% annual growth rate seen in the 2010s [3]. - The demand for nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements is expected to increase by 6% to 8% in 2024, primarily driven by applications in electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and power grids [3]. - The rapid expansion of investments in electric grids in China has been a major factor in the recent growth of copper demand [15]. Group 3: Geopolitical Strategies - Countries are increasingly focusing on critical mineral supply chain security as a core policy issue, employing legislation, policy guidance, and international cooperation to ensure stable supplies [10]. - The U.S. has implemented several legislative actions to enhance domestic supply chain resilience, including the establishment of the Critical Minerals Security Strategy [10]. - The European Union has introduced the Critical Raw Materials Act to ensure the security and sustainability of critical mineral supplies [10]. Group 4: Geographic Distribution and Market Characteristics - The geographical distribution of critical mineral reserves is highly concentrated, with significant shares located in specific regions, such as lithium in the "Lithium Triangle" of South America [13]. - The production of certain critical minerals, like cobalt, is dominated by a few countries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 86% of cobalt production [13]. - Western multinational mining companies dominate the ownership of critical mineral resources, leveraging their technological and experiential advantages over developing countries [14]. Group 5: Price Trends - Despite the rapid increase in demand, the supply of critical minerals has also surged, leading to downward pressure on prices, particularly for battery metals [15]. - Lithium prices soared eightfold between 2021 and 2022 but have since dropped by over 80% in 2023 [15]. - Prices for graphite, cobalt, and nickel are expected to decline by 10% to 20% in 2024 [15].