A股“长假定律”背后的秘密

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market around the National Day holiday, highlighting the historical "calendar effect" where the market typically experiences adjustments before the holiday and rebounds afterward [5][6][9]. Market Performance - On September 24, the market saw a strong performance with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high and the STAR 50 Index rising nearly 5%, with over 4,400 stocks increasing in value [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.28% on the same day [3]. Calendar Effect - Historical data shows that in the past 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has had an 80% probability of declining in the five trading days before the National Day holiday, with a median drop of 1.45% [5][6]. - Conversely, the index has a 60% probability of rising in the five trading days following the holiday, with six out of ten years showing an increase [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Investors face a choice of holding stocks or cash during the holiday, with recommendations depending on the quality of the assets held. Good stocks and funds can be held, while those lacking fundamental support may be sold [6][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence and patience to capitalize on the ongoing bull market [6][9]. Long-term Market Outlook - The article notes that the A-share market has seen a significant increase over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2,700 to around 3,900, a nearly 40% increase [7][8]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with the risk premium narrowing from 4.6% to 2.6% since September 24 of the previous year [8]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, supported by strong performance in sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing [9][10].