国泰海通 · 晨报0925｜策略：内需周期品价格回暖，服务消费景气提升——中观景气9月第3期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].