国泰海通｜汽车：8月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏

Core Viewpoint - In August, domestic heavy truck sales reached 92,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - From January to August, cumulative domestic heavy truck sales totaled 716,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 15% [2]. - The high growth in August is attributed to a low base from the previous year and the "old-for-new" policy that has stabilized the new truck market [2]. - Electric heavy trucks continue to show explosive growth, while natural gas heavy trucks have rebounded after five months of decline [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - In August 2025, the sales distribution of semi-trailer trucks, heavy-duty trucks, and heavy non-complete vehicles accounted for 50.6%, 27.8%, and 21.7% of total heavy truck sales, respectively [3]. - Semi-trailer truck sales in August reached 49,000 units, up 42% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month [3]. - Heavy-duty truck sales in August were 24,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54% but a month-on-month decline of 2% [3]. - Heavy non-complete vehicle sales in August were 19,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 50% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [3]. Group 3: Focus on Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In August, domestic natural gas heavy truck sales reached 16,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month-on-month increase of 30% [4]. - Cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks from January to August totaled 116,000 units, down 9% year-on-year [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 17% in August, with semi-trailer trucks showing a penetration rate of 32% [4]. - The cost-effectiveness of natural gas trucks is highlighted for those with an annual mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers, suggesting potential for increased adoption [4]. Group 4: New Energy Heavy Trucks - In August, domestic new energy heavy truck sales reached 15,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 197% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [4]. - Cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks from January to August were 103,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 175% [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy in heavy trucks was 16% in August, with a cumulative penetration rate of 14% from January to August [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with a forecast of 1.067 million units sold in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [1]. - The maturation of domestic new energy heavy truck technology and rapid cost reductions indicate significant potential for increased penetration, projected to reach 15% by 2025 [1]. - The growth potential in the heavy truck industry is supported by domestic market recovery and continued export growth, alongside the development of natural gas heavy trucks, which may enhance profitability for leading companies [1].