“可以继续享受AI牛市”，但野村警告：现在不能放弃对冲

Core Viewpoint - Despite the solid foundation of the AI-driven bull market in the U.S. stock market, significant downside risks have accumulated, and abandoning hedging strategies is deemed dangerous [1][3][18] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market is supported by multiple factors, including a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus from combating inflation to monitoring the labor market, which has created a dovish outlook [7] - Ongoing fiscal stimulus and large-scale deficit spending in the U.S. and globally continue to bolster the market [7] - High-income consumers in the U.S. are driving consumption, supported by a favorable financial environment characterized by a weaker dollar and narrow corporate credit spreads [7] - The "AI halo" effect from large tech companies is a core theme driving market risk appetite, with strong cash flows supporting capital expenditures and unprecedented stock buybacks [7] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Sentiment - Investors are currently exhibiting a strong bullish sentiment, as evidenced by a sharp increase in demand for call options relative to put options, indicating a strong inclination towards upward market movement [5][12] - Despite the potential risks, investors are increasing leverage and pursuing high-beta, high-volatility stocks, reflecting a disregard for underlying vulnerabilities [10][12] Group 3: Warning Signals - The emergence of a concerning "circular investment" model among tech giants, where substantial funds are cycled between companies for capital restructuring, raises alarms about market sustainability [8] - The current market structure is extremely fragile, with a significant accumulation of long gamma positions near at-the-money options, which suppresses short-term volatility and creates a "slow grind" upward [14][16] - Systematic capital flows are preparing for asymmetric selling pressure, with a sell-to-buy demand ratio nearing 2:1, indicating substantial deleveraging liquidity risks [16]