Core Viewpoint - The global green transition is facing challenges due to the dual impact of demand and supply side factors, particularly influenced by the Trump 2.0 energy policy, which may lead to a 6.3%-8% decline in cumulative global green product demand from 2025 to 2030 compared to baseline scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Global Green Competition - The competition in the global green economy is characterized by two main aspects: the competition between fossil and green economies, and the competition among countries in the green industry [4][5]. - The Biden administration's policies are expected to accelerate the re-industrialization process in the U.S., posing new challenges for China's green industry [3][5]. Group 2: Global Green Demand - The Trump 2.0 policy is projected to directly impact U.S. green demand, which constitutes 5%-25% of global demand, potentially leading to a 17% decline in U.S. wind, solar, and storage demand by 2030 [8][11]. - The external spillover effects of the Trump 2.0 policy may weaken other countries' support for clean energy, particularly in nations with high fossil fuel self-sufficiency [11][14]. Group 3: Challenges for China's Green Supply - China's green industry faces increased trade barriers, including tariffs and non-tariff barriers, which may hinder its export capabilities [24][25]. - Investment restrictions in developed economies are tightening, making it more difficult for Chinese companies to invest abroad, particularly in the green technology sector [26][27]. Group 4: Impact on Key Green Industries - The negative impact on China's exports is expected to be most severe for electric vehicles, followed by lithium batteries and solar products, due to tariffs and declining demand in key markets [32][33]. - The shift from mergers and acquisitions to joint ventures and technology licensing may increase the risk of technology spillover, affecting China's competitive edge in green technologies [35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To stimulate domestic green demand, policies should focus on enhancing the consumption of green products and improving the infrastructure for renewable energy integration [44][45]. - Expanding regional trade cooperation and promoting green exports to developing countries can help mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions [45][46]. - Strengthening intellectual property protection is crucial for maintaining China's leadership in green technology innovation [47].
地缘经济论 | 第八章 绿色产业：应对地缘经济形势下的需求冲击
中金点睛·2025-09-24 23:56