2025，一直“在线”！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].