光伏周价格 | 政策预期支撑下，光伏产业链价格高位持稳

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the stability of prices in the polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module segments, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations [4][6][10][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing high inventory levels exceeding 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend. However, major producers are signaling production cuts post-holiday to manage supply [4]. - Demand is weak as downstream companies prioritize consuming existing inventory due to previous stockpiling, leading to subdued market purchases [5]. - Despite a relaxed supply-demand balance, polysilicon prices remain stable, supported by strong policy expectations and limited supply-side discipline [6]. Wafers - The wafer segment shows a healthy supply-demand balance with inventory levels around 16 GW. The supply structure is tight for 183N and 210N wafers, while inventory for 210RN has eased due to proactive production adjustments [7]. - Downstream demand for wafers is robust, effectively consuming the output from the wafer segment [8]. - Price expectations for wafers are bullish due to rising costs from upstream polysilicon, strong demand from cells, and anticipated supply reductions [9]. Cells - The cell segment exhibits a favorable supply-demand landscape with inventory levels maintained at a healthy 3-5 days. Supply adjustments are targeted rather than broad, with some manufacturers reducing production of the underperforming 210RN cells [10]. - Demand is differentiated, with 183N cells driven by overseas markets like Turkey and India, while 210N cells are primarily supported by domestic demand [11]. - Cell prices are expected to remain high due to healthy inventory levels, strong demand for mainstream products, and rational supply-side adjustments [12]. Modules - The module market is currently influenced by both cost pressures and policy factors, leading to strong price support and increased market differentiation among manufacturers [14]. - Rising upstream costs have pushed module prices to a critical point of 0.7 RMB/W, causing a price inversion between new and old orders, which impacts manufacturer profitability [14]. - The industry's self-discipline actions, including production and sales limits, are expected to significantly influence supply in the fourth quarter, providing strong support for module prices [14].